5 min read

By Bill Petros

                The War In Ukraine

Are we close to Nuclear War with Russia? 

 Update: April 27t, 2022


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War in Ukraine



As the war rages on in Ukrtaine...

The Russian Foreign Minister kept the nuclear threat on the table, emphasizing that some "inflate" this danger, which can not be "underestimated". Sergei Lavrov spoke openly about World War III, while The West is pressuring Kyiv to continue hostilities. The risk of a nuclear war is now very significant and can not be underestimated, he admitted in a televised interview on Monday night, adding that "there are many who are willing to artificially inflate this threat."  


Nuclear War


Figure 1: Nuclear Bomb Blast


How Does The US "Scan" The Movements Of The Russians


Are the Russians threatening and at the same time getting prepared for a catastrophic nuclear strike? Hundreds of satellites watch from above the strategic movements of the well-trained Russians, using the data of previous investigations. To date, there is no real cause for concern. This year, in late February, Vladimir Putin vehemently stated that Russia's nuclear weapons had been put on "special combat readiness."  

Rocket launch

Figure 2:Rocket Launch



The United States immediately responded with an alarm over the storage of US surveillance equipment. Hundreds of observation satellites, combined with other federal ones or private spacecraft, were tasked with detecting any strange mobility between Russian bombers, missiles, submarines, and a plethora of nuclear warheads. US authorities have not yet identified anything to worry about. 


 By adopting private assessments, NATO and United States officials have not indicated that the Asian bear is preparing for a nuclear catastrophe that will sweep everything.


"We have not seen anything to adjust our nuclear stance," Jake Sullivan, emphasized in a public interview on March 23 of this year 



Since The Cuban Missle Crysis

However, US authorities have reasonable suspicions not to stop the investigation, experts admit. Moscow has been implementing controlled nuclear explosions lately, to offset losses on the battlefield. And many military data analysts are worried about what Putin could do after the failures in Ukraine. Compared to 1962, when a state-of-the-art American spy satellite failed to detect 158 nuclear warheads and a huge load of missiles that Russians had sent to Cuba. 



Eyes In The Sky

Today, a huge number of private and public observation satellites are constantly scanning the planet to evaluate movements, map cities, and reveal the hidden secrets of the great powers that manage nuclear warheads. Russia is unquestionably superior to all other major powers in nuclear stockpiles.

This fact is a bet for analysts to evaluate the situation in detail. Private US companies such as Capella Space and Planet Labs have provided analysts with hundreds of images of Russia's nuclear forces. Private US companies such as Planet Labs and Capella Space, have presented to experts dozens of images that demonstrate the real nuclear power of the Russian steppe.

Private Media had been watching the development of the Russian nuclear superpower before the war in Ukraine, including routine exercises, as well as maintenance work. "You have to look at these things and see if they seem normal," supported M. Lowenthal, a former assistant director at C.I.A. " When you notice a discrepancy, you have to wonder if something is happening."


Could The War In Ukraine Lead To A Nuclear War Between The USA And Russia? Wrong alarm  

Shortly after Putin's statement, the wrong alarm sounded. A Twitter user sparked a backlash when he revealed that a NATO satellite had caught two Russian nuclear submarines leaving a northwestern port. A London newspaper called "The Express", warned of "strategic readiness". 

This news did not receive much response and reproduction as experts undertook to reassure the world by clarifying that the mobility of the submarines was due to a planned exercise. However, satellite imagery at the Middlebury Institute for International Studies continued to observe the Russian submarine fleet. In this way, it is estimated that any suspicious sign of nuclear fire will be detected


Normally, half of those loaded with nuclear Russian submarine missiles are aimed at the liquid element of the sea for pre-planned training patrols. The rest remain in their facilities for repair or maintenance. Analysts "see" the empty bases like a bell of danger ready to ring loudly


"During a state of maximum readiness," Duitsman said, I would advise that a big number of submarines should be at sea."

Also near the Volga Riverside, a specialized team has investigated the Saratov-63, a nuclear weapons depot for Russia's long-range missiles. At a short distance from the area, there is a base for the bombing. The images, recorded on March 6, showed heavy snowfall and, as Duitsman claimed, there was not the slightest indication of increased alarm status.

In 1998, a senior U.S. officer toured an underground shelter at Saratov-63 and certified that there were large and unsurpassed nuclear weapons as well as smaller conventional ones. The second one is considered to play a leading role in Russia's nuclear strikes.



It is emphasized by analysts that Putin's statement of "combat readiness" was not a mandate to start the World War III, but rather a warning message that something bad is coming soon. Podvig Pavel admitted that the alert was likely to prepare the coveted Russian army for an impending nuclear order. This fact was also confirmed by Nikolai Sokov, a former Soviet diplomat who negotiated arms control conditions.

"It is a message to control and administration units," Sokov said. "It simply came to our notice then. An order may come." Dr. Lowenthal, a former assistant, head of the C.I.A., and now a research associate at Johns Hopkins, described Putin's move to escalate as the most troubling. 

"We can have a relatively good picture of what is normal," he said commenting on Russia's nuclear movements. "What might happen behind this, is always worrying." Observation satellites, after all, cannot detect the movements of people inside shelters and in the basements of buildings. "You are never sure whether Russia can approve the dropping of nuclear bombs. This is what makes you nervous," he added.


Could The War In Ukraine Lead To A Nuclear War With NATO?

During the Cold War, the main threat to Western Europe was the launch of a large-scale conventional attack. This is because the threat of a nuclear attack was essentially neutralized, as both Western countries and the Soviet Union had nuclear weapons, and any reciprocal attack would lead to what is known as Mutual Assured Destruction.

However, no matter how the world situation unfolds, no one can rule out the sudden ejection of nuclear chemicals by a wounded leadership in despair. In this case, we are talking about the possibility of the first blow, i.e. the attack of the opponent where his retaliatory blow is not expected to cause much damage. In this decision, what is at stake will be borne, that is, what each of the opponents will lose.

Under these circumstances, perhaps the only case of a real nuclear threat could make sense if a nuclear power reaches the end of its existence. In the case of Russia, this does not seem visible in the current period, but more in the future, even if the development of business in Ukraine does not have the expected results and this is combined with extremely harsh and long-term measures from the West that will bring the absolute misery of the Russian people. 

The latter does not seem to be visible at the moment, since despite the harsh sanctions there is room for Russia, taking into account the support, attitude, and neutrality of countries such as China, Iran, Turkey, Egypt, the Arab countries, and the countries of the Caucasus.


Nightmare Scenario With 90 Million Victims

Putin's alarm over the nuclear arsenal raises global concern. A nightmare simulation of the US-Russia nuclear war has been reproduced by Princeton University. The scenario of a generalization of the conflict between Russia and the West has not been ruled out so far, while the orders of Vladimir Putin, before invading Ukraine, to put his nuclear arsenal on alert, have forced the world community to watch the developments with bated breath. 

What the United States and Russia have presented in the past has already surpassed the atomic bomb that leveled Hiroshima. In particular, a nuclear test conducted by the Americans exceeded the power of that explosion in Hiroshima by 1,000 times, while a corresponding test by the Russians by 3,000 times. In both cases, the main goal was to prevent strikes with simultaneous mutually guaranteed destruction.


What Are The Chances Of Russia Using A Tactical Nuke On NATO Or The US? 

The two great world powers have nuclear weapons that are less destructive than their counterparts in the past. Their power is only fractions of the power of the Hiroshima bomb and a possible drop of them is perhaps less frightening. The global arms race continues, but modern-day estimates suggest that if the Hiroshima bomb were detonated in central Manhattan, it would kill or injure 90 million people.

This scenario might seem exaggerated, but with Vladimir Putin being, according to Western officials, cramped and the "operation" in Ukraine "swamped", no one can rule out a decision to fire one of his nuclear weapons, given that the Russian army has been trained in have been trained in both conventional and nuclear warfare.


In Closing:

The chances are slim, but they still exist, according to war analysts, without being able to estimate with certainty what Joe Biden's response to such a possibility might be. What is certain is that we are experiencing historical moments and it would be wise to keep our composure while preparing for the worst-case scenario.



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